Fool's Gold

Throughout Spring Training games I was bombarded with two things:

1. Very ugly jerseys. (As an aside, I would be thrilled to go the rest of my life without seeing any black in the color scheme of Mets jerseys; however, while I’ve made my piece with that inevitability, I refuse to recognize royal blue and black as an appropriate color scheme for any uniform outside of maybe the Arena Football League)

2. Commercials hyping the NEW METS

Indeed, the Mets fan had a lot to look forward to this year. He had a General Manager who seemed willing to spend New York money on A-list free agents, as opposed to New York money on Jeremy Burnitz and mummified Roberto Alomar, a solid starting five that would be league average or better in their respective slots, and a line-up with some star power mixed with serviceable hands and homegrown prospects prepped for breakout seasons. He was even willing to overlook the fact that there was only going to be one or two actual major league caliber pitchers in his bullpen.

While there might have been some debate on whether Pedro was worth the money, or how well Beltran would hit in Shea, or if Mike Piazza would rebound or regress further, the usual Talking Heads were uniformly excited about the top of the Mets order. And, why not? Jose Reyes was looking healthy for the first time. Matsui had the ‘adjustment’ year under his belt, and was no longer going to embarrass himself at shortstop. And they had speed! They had 50 stolen base speed! Both of them! At the top of the order! Smallball! Are you aroused yet, baseball pundit? As attractive as the Mets 1-2 hitters looked before the season, it would seem that all that glitters is not gold.

A caveat- I love watching Jose Reyes play. He’s just plain fun to watch, as he stretches routine base hits into doubles, steals bases seemingly at will and fills the BBTN web gem section. That said, he doesn’t walk. Ever.

Okay, that’s a bit harsh. If you look at his career numbers, admittedly only 120 games worth, he does walk occasionally. Occasionally is a colloquial expression though, so let’s be specific. He walks about once every 29 plate appearances. At his best, Reyes is probably a .310 hitter, and that’s being liberal. Is he going to be getting on base consistently at a .350 clip? I don’t know if I see it.

With that said, he might make a good number 2 hitter, until you look at his strike out rate, in absolute terms and relative to his walk rate. Is this nitpicking? Perhaps a little. I’m not suggesting he become Brett Butler or anything. I’d take his minor league walk rate at this point. If he gets on base a little more, his speed’s multiplier effect will lead to an exponential increase in runs created.

Of course, while Reyes is not without value at the top of the order, Matsui, hitting in the two hole, is more problematic. He walks more than Reyes, and has marginally better power, but he strikes out a lot for a number two hitter, almost once every five plate appearances last year. If you buy the ‘adjustment’ factor, that’s fine. I personally don’t, but even so, how much of a decrease are you willing to grant him? Out of the box, his strikeout rate is about where it was last year, and he’s only walked once. It’s a tiny sample size, but I don’t know if it necessarily an aberration. He is still valuable (offensively, mind you) and would be fine as a number 7 hitter. He just strikes out too much to be valuable in the two hole. Put Wright there and you get fewer strikeouts, more walks, and significantly more power. I’m not suggesting put Cairo out there every day- apparently baseball punditry is not for those with long memories- but there are some fairly simple fixes that Randolph could make that would make the Mets more effective run producers. And with that bullpen, they’re going to need it.

But that is a topic for another day, and probably several other days.